Looking ahead: Trends shaping space security in 2019
The world has entered a Second Space Age, marked by anintensification of our interactions and reach into outer space. A core part of theinternational Space Security Indexproject, managed by Project Ploughshares, is to look holistically at how states,companies, and people around the world access and make use of this domain. Lookingto the year ahead, five storylines stand out for their ability to illustrate howthis age will unfold and who will benefit.
#1: Military rumblings
Current global momentum in accessing and using outer spaceshould not be seen as a Kumbaya moment. Like the first Golden Age of Space, itis underpinned by strategic competition, military tensions, and a growing focuson the potential for warfare in outer space.
A big story in 2018 was the evolving saga of a U.S.Space Force (since fictionalized in a Netflix series by Steve Carellcalled Space Force).This is an effort to consolidate and assert U.S. military capabilities in spaceas the nation faces growing competition and vulnerability. But it also isevidence that the prevailing norms that have stabilized relations in outerspace – including an emphasis on peaceful use and non-weaponization – are dissolving.
The U.S. think-tank CSIS describes the current era in space as “diverse,disruptive, disordered, and dangerous.” In this context, the three dominant militaryplayers – the United States, Russia, and China – each accuse oneanother of seeking to weaponize space. Not mere rhetoric, counterspacecapabilities are accelerating. In the absence of new mutualrestraints – either global agreements or bilateral understandings – it’s notclear how much longer outer space will remain an environment defined bypeaceful use and non-weaponization. But prospects for new constraints in theshort term are poor.
#2: Agreements and acrimony
Although they aren’t covered on the front pages ofnewspapers or trending on social media, events related to the governance ofouter space are having a critical effect, for both good and ill.
The good:
The UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space(UNCOPUOS) finalized agreement on an initial list of guidelines intended topromote the long-termsustainability of outer space. This marks a critical diplomaticachievement in space governance and growing global awareness and commitment tothe preservation of this fragile environment. Looking to the future, this achievementsuggests a viable path for forging additional rules to guide the next generationof activities in outer space. But more contentious security-related operations arenot covered.
There is evidence that discussions related to the preventionof an arms race in outer space at the Conference on Disarmament areinching forward, along with such new initiatives as discussion of the theimplementation of transparency and confidence-building measures (TCBMs) at theUN Disarmament Commission and the formation of a UNGroup of Governmental Experts (GGE) on Prevention of an ArmsRace in Outer Space (PAROS).
From a disarmament perspective, it’s the best oftimes, but also the worst of times.
The ill:
Fed by accusations by all sides that competitors are developingweapons to use in outer space, the growing military standoff in space isincreasingly apparent in diplomatic settings. Acrimony at the UN FirstCommittee on International Security and Disarmament continues to escalate, erodingpreviously hard-won sources of consensus on the pursuit of TCBMs andthe prevention of an arms race in outer space. More than at any time in recentmemory, the effects of military tensions threaten to breach the boundaries ofEarth.
#3: To the Moon and beyond
For the first time since the Apollo program, we are in amoment in which we could expand humanity’s presence beyond Earth. This year kickedoff with the landing of China’s Chang’e4 robotic rover on the far side of the Moon. This is a historicfirst that represents both a technological feat and a new drive for humanexploration, colonization, and resource extraction on other astronomical bodiesand planets. As well, there is a growing momentum to create a newinternational space station in lunar orbit as a gateway to deep-spaceexploration, led by NASA with cooperation from civil space agencies includingRussia’s. The European Space Agency is promoting a plan for a global MoonVillage. Although delayed, India’s secondrobotic mission to the Moon is expected to launch later this year.
This renewed drive to explore other planets is no longerrestricted to states. Moon Express is expected to bethe first private company to land on the Moon in 2019. Japanese citizen YusakuMaezawa has paid SpaceX $10-billion to become the firsttourist to circle the Moon, possibly by 2023. Human settlements are alsothe long-term goal of billionaires ElonMusk (SpaceX) and JeffBezos (Blue Origin), who are funding innovative new space launchcapabilities.
The focus on the Moon and beyond is even generating novelcultural initiatives. The nonprofit organization For all Moonkind has gainedsignificant momentum in mapping humanity’s cultural heritage on the Moon.
#4: Commercialinvestment in space
Efforts to extend human reach beyond Earth are about morethan science and exploration. Many are governed by visions of resources,including a wealth of minerals. Future mining expeditions by private companies are raising questions about who should haveaccess to such riches.
Commercial activity in outer space – increasingly funded by privateinvestment – is driving innovation in how we access and make use ofouter space. Space launches garnered huge headlines in 2018. Consider the firstorbital launch by RocketLab and the unforgettable launch of SpaceX’s BigFalcon Rocket (BFR) – Tesla and all. But it is the proliferationof small launch capabilities that will have the biggest impact inthe near future as they open up access to space for many more and new actors.
Beyond the headlines is a more transformative shift as theprivate space sector changes basic assumptions about who uses space and how. Commercialventures are driving new services such as persistent imaging of every corner of the Earth,space-basedInternet, and blockchain,putting space at the centre of our data-driven world. Experimentation in newservices, including 3Dprinting, satelliteservicing, and the extractionof resources, reveal the private sector as an increasingly strategicactor in space. Implications could be life-changing on Earth, but raisequestions about universal access and benefits.
#5: Reaping thebenefits of space
Increasingly, humans are looking to space assets to improvethe quality of life on Earth. This perspective was captured by the 50thanniversary meeting of the UnitedNations Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space in2018. The goal of this meeting was to chart the future of cooperation inspace and consider how space can be used to benefit humankind, particularly in achievingthe Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). UN Ambassador for Space and former U.S.astronaut John Kelly urged participants to mobilize space capabilities to take careof this planet and its people. This is the goal of the new Space2030 agenda: to leverage collaboration to use space to meet theSDGs.
Efforts to reap greater benefits from space are evident in hugenational investments. In 2018, a flurry of new space agencies and programs tookshape around the world, including in Australia,Turkey,and Zimbabwe.Many countries, including Kenya, Bhutan, Jordan, Costa Rica, and New Zealand,had their first satellites launched.
New cooperative ventures to extend access to outer space andspace-based data – including a partnership between Chinaand the UN Office of Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) to provide accessto China’s future space station, and efforts to make space datapublicly available – also stand out.
Asking big questions
Space is atthe core of the future of humanity. So, it’s critical that we start asking thebig questions:
- How can we share the benefits of space applications,exploration, and resources?
- What values should govern our ventures intospace?
- As humans make this new leap into the unknown,how can we curb our worst impulses for exploitation, violence, and warfare?
Let’s start talking.
