By Jessica West
Published in The Ploughshares Monitor Autumn 2024
Space junk landing on a home in Florida. Solar storms disrupting GPS service. Renewed fears of nuclear weapons in orbit. These are a few of this year’s headline-makers. Although each points to a distinct security-related concern in outer space, together they serve as a reminder that our efforts to nurture peace and security in orbit cannot ignore the dangers that space poses to Earth.
The roots of space security
Over 20 years ago, the concept of space security emerged to address the complex threats and benefits associated with outer space. Project Ploughshares worked with partners to develop the annual Space Security Index report, which defined “space security” as the “safe, secure, and sustainable access to and use of space, and freedom from space-based threats.” This definition gained significant traction in public policy and international diplomacy, but the focus on space-based threats has waned over time. We must revisit these concerns to ensure that peace and security in outer space remain comprehensive, inclusive, and connected to Earth.
Expanding our awareness of space-based threats
Initial concerns about space-based threats concentrated on the weaponization of space, as some of the world’s militaries attempted to develop the ability to strike at Earth from space. Examples included the Soviet fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) and the U.S. Star Wars program.
Today such fears are largely phantoms; the technical challenges of space-based weapons remain daunting and the implications for strategic stability self-defeating. Instead, our biggest concerns are weapons that target other space assets. Even renewed fears of nuclear weapons in space are focused on the possibility that an orbital detonation will destroy essential space infrastructure and contaminate the space environment.
We still face hazards from space itself. Solar storms, which produce beautiful auroras, wreak havoc on electricity grids and degrade the accuracy of signals from positioning, navigation, and timing satellites. Asteroids both big and small collide with our planet; some could wipe out a large city.
Human activity in space also poses harms, including to Canada. While most space junk will burn up in the atmosphere, some will reach Earth. In 1978, the Soviet nuclear-powered satellite Cosmos-954 re-entered Earth’s atmosphere and scattered radioactive debris over the Northwest Territories near Great Slave Lake. Between 2002 and 2017, Russian rocket stages containing toxic fuel were dropped into Arctic waters at least 10 times.
More recent incidents involve a piece of space junk from the International Space Station (ISS) crashing through a home in Florida this past March, and part of a SpaceX Dragon rocket used in the Axiom Mission 3 private spaceflight to the ISS landing in a field in Saskatchewan in April. These events are becoming more frequent as the number of space launches and objects in low Earth orbit increases.
Most surviving debris lands in the Pacific Ocean, often in an area known as the “spacecraft cemetery”; this is the expected site for the retired ISS. Although uninhabited by people, this marine environment is not immune to harm from the toxins in space junk. And those pieces of debris that burn up in the atmosphere upon re-entry can release aerosols that contain elements like copper, aluminum, and lithium. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that returning space junk is not good for Earth’s ecological health.
Some uses of space impede others. For example, light pollution and radio interference emitted by satellite constellations affect astronomy and culture on Earth. As well, capabilities that interfere with the ability to use space systems pose risks to civilians who depend on the invisible web of data that underpins much of daily life.
A more subtle yet dangerous issue is the increasing use of space-derived data to guide harmful actions on Earth. Since the launch of the first artificial satellites, military powers have used satellite data for strategic purposes. Today, the combination of the widespread availability of space-based data, much of it for sale on the commercial market, with the power of artificial intelligence makes using space for harmful purposes easier, as seen in the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Canada’s Department of National Defence calls this the “digitization of defence” and it comes with severe human consequences.
Many more harms stemming from the uses of space are detailed in Hidden Harms: Human (In)security in Outer Space: Consultation Report, published by Project Ploughshares in July.
The need to account for risk
Current approaches to space security need to better account for and prevent the various harms that can arise from space activities. Although the Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects requires states to compensate for damages on Earth that are caused by their space objects, many space-related harms don’t fit neatly into this category; they are less visible, less directly attributable, and more dispersed. International humanitarian law offers another avenue to protect civilian users of space but primarily addresses violent actions, leaving harmful effects below the threshold of armed conflict unregulated.
Space-related harms are often overlooked in diplomatic discussions that focus on the freedom to use space and protecting space systems. This approach ignores the unequal distribution of benefits from space activities and the fact that some people suffer harm as a result of the use of space by others.
Academics Shona Illingworth and Nick Grief from the University of Kent have proposed an Airspace Tribunal to explore the need for a new human right, “to live without physical or psychological threat from above,” which includes threats from space. However, we don’t need to wait for new international laws to start considering the impact of our space activities on the well-being of others and the planet.
Expanding the space security framework
Raising awareness and increasing the visibility of space-related harms are essential first steps in identifying and mitigating risks. A key finding from the consultations reported on in Hidden Harms is that many harms linked to space are shrouded by layers of invisibility that result from a lack of adequate public knowledge and data, compounded by the complex ways in which people are connected to space. Making visible the problem of light pollution from space, for example, has been key in getting discussions on dark and quiet skies on the agenda of various United Nations bodies.
To address these issues comprehensively, we need to develop a clearer language and framework to discuss the risks, harms, and threats associated with space. Many of these concerns are missing from a lot of current definitions of space security. When concerns are recognized, they are often treated as exceptions rather than inherent features of the space environment.
A focus on freedom from space-based threats forges a stronger connection between space activities and their impact on Earth. This perspective not only promotes a more inclusive understanding of space security but encourages us to consider the often-hidden harms linked to space activities.
Turning our gaze to the potentially harmful effects of the space environment and space activities doesn’t impede our ability to use and benefit from space. Instead, it broadens our understanding of the diverse security needs related to space and the variety of harms that require mitigation and accountability.
