Written by Jessica Stewart
Published in The Ploughshares Monitor Winter 2024
The Toutatis asteroid, discovered by French astronomers in 1989, is known for its irregular shape and chaotic rotation, with a near-Earth orbit that makes a collision with Earth a real possibility. How fitting, then, that France’s latest space defence initiative, unveiled this past September, is also named “Toutatis” – an acronym for the French phrase meaning “In-Orbit Test of Action Techniques against Attempted Spatial Interference.” This initiative mirrors the asteroid’s unpredictability and our growing concerns about the militarization of modern space security. It symbolizes a new kind of technological threat to space and to Earth.
The next level of space warfare
A project of Operation ARES (Space Action and Resilience), Toutatis is an attempt by France to address the growing threat of interference and potential attacks on its satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) – the most important orbit for both military and commercial space projects. Developed by startup U-Space in partnership with leading missile manufacturer MBDA, Toutatis is expected to launch within the next 12 to 24 months.
Toutatis will feature a “watchdog” satellite for space surveillance (“LISA-1”) and a “low-orbit action” demonstrator satellite for defence (“Splinter”). Together, these satellites will catalogue all orbital objects, detect potentially malicious activities, and effectively counter any threats that arise.
In a presentation video shown at an industry conference in September, France showed Splinter targeting and dazzling another satellite with a green laser beam. Dazzling – the directing of high-intensity laser beams – temporarily blinds or disrupts the target satellite’s optical sensors, thereby impairing its ability to collect or transmit data. According to MBDA’s head of new markets, Nicolas Lefort, this technology will “bring space warfare to the next level.”
A cause for concern
Presently, no known satellites are equipped with lasers designed to blind targets. But this technology is gaining more attention as countries develop new space defence strategies.
Space-based laser dazzlers, which are generally considered defensive countermeasures rather than weapons, would temporarily impair satellite sensors but not cause permanent damage. However, no international framework agreements, including the Outer Space Treaty (OST), clearly define space weapons. United Nations (UN) meetings on Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS) have yet to reach consensus on how to distinguish between offensive and defensive capabilities.
There is also no one-size-fits-all manual on the use of laser dazzlers. The power needed to dazzle without causing damage and the threshold between “dazzling” and “damage” vary according to numerous factors, including the laser’s manoeuvrability and wavelength, and the target satellite’s internal design and protection mechanisms. As well, some or much of this information will likely be unknown by the operator of the targeting laser.
It is not hard to see how the development of defence technologies like space-based laser dazzlers is contributing to insecurity in space. As states seek to protect their high-value space assets, they unintentionally create more insecurity for others, prompting escalations in arms development. In this case, French actions imply that the risks posed by adversaries necessitate the development and deployment of new defence technologies. But such militarized and inflammatory responses to perceived threats are propelling an arms race that could lead to violent confrontations.
Militarizing space policy
France has emerged as one of the West’s most vocal proponents of counterspace weapons development. In 2019, it published its Space Defence Strategy (SDS), outlining a commitment to defend a “new front” in outer space.
The SDS classifies space as the “fifth domain of military operations,” along with land, sea, air, and cyberspace. It emphasizes the need to develop capabilities to defend its space assets and deter hostile actions against its space infrastructure. It focuses particularly on improving space situational awareness and implementing active defences against threats by 2030.
Other countries and organizations are beginning to develop new space defence capabilities. The United States aims to attain “combat readiness” in space by 2027. The European Defence Fund is investing in advanced stealth “bodyguard” satellites that will be equipped with lasers and robotic systems designed to neutralize potential threats. Russia and China are believed to be advancing their own space weapons, although little is known for certain.
France’s transparency regarding space defence technologies should not be demonized, but rather encouraged, since many states operate behind a veil of secrecy. However, we can’t ignore the fact that the framing of space as a warfighting domain and the creation of weapons designed to “deter” could promote escalatory hostile behaviour and contribute to an arms race.
Blurring the line between defensive and offensive behaviours
France specified that the Toutatis project will align with international law, including the right to self-defence. According to the UN charter, a state has the right to defend itself – to exercise force in response to an armed attack. But where to draw the line between defence and offence?
France’s policies on space defence and the creation of the Toutatis program blur the line between peaceful and aggressive behaviours in outer space. Splinter’s high manoeuvrability and dazzling lasers could be interpreted in positive and negative ways by adversaries and allies. While Splinter is not explicitly weaponized, its role in military operations highlights a shift in how outer space is viewed – from a peaceful domain accessible to all to the next battlefield.
Even if accepted as defensive, dazzlers in outer space could increase the likelihood of misunderstandings, miscalculations, and misperceptions among spacefaring nations. Protective actions could be misread as offensive and threatening. And, as militaries begin to mobilize in space, their behaviours often test the limits of international agreements, creating an environment in which deterrence and aggression become increasingly difficult to distinguish and even define.
A focus on defence must include efforts to prevent conflict escalation and the rapid deployment of weapons or defensive capabilities. Moving forward, it is essential that international frameworks recognize the narrow distinction between offensive and defensive actions in space, and the potential harms and unintended consequences such actions may produce.
A unique domain
Outer space is fundamentally different from any terrestrial domains, with no boundaries or defined territories. Conflict in space will inevitably involve not only military but also commercial and civilian assets. Moreover, it could easily contaminate an already delicate space environment to the extent that vital services on Earth will be threatened or lost. Thus, it is crucial to respond to growing concerns in the international community about the characterization of space as a military and warfighting domain, even if the advertised focus is on defence.
International diplomacy must do a better job of defining what constitutes a space weapon and acknowledge the implications of applying the right to self-defence in outer space. Such understanding needs to be supported by agreements that encourage transparency and incorporate confidence-building measures to support space security.
Jessica Stewart is a Fall 2024 Balsillie Technology Governance Intern at Project Ploughshares.
