By Cesar Jaramillo
Published in The Ploughshares Monitor Spring 2025
The year promises to be turbulent, with resurgent geopolitical tensions, environmental degradation, and the rapid advancement of military technologies among the disruptions that threaten global peace and security. For Project Ploughshares, these disruptions underscore the importance of strengthening global norms and fostering responsible security policies. Canada can and should be a constructive player on the global stage, leveraging its unique position to foster diplomacy, strengthen international norms, and promote responsible security policies.
The challenges for all of us who work for peace, disarmament, and global security are daunting. But Project Ploughshares is ready to meet them, as we have been for nearly 50 years. Among those challenges are the following:
1. The Impact of a second Trump administration
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent shockwaves through the international system. His first term in office tested America’s alliances, rattled global institutions, and emboldened other authoritarian leaders. In his second term, disruptions are escalating as an unpredictable and transactional US approach to foreign policy prioritizes personal power and nationalist rhetoric over traditional diplomacy.
In the first weeks of his current term, Trump reignited trade wars by threatening to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada; he also alienated allies by expressing an interest in taking over Greenland and the Panama Canal, and annexing Canada. These early moves signal a willingness to challenge established diplomatic norms. His disregard for the collective defence of NATO further undermines a transatlantic alliance that has underpinned Western security cooperation since 1949.
For Canada, these actions are profoundly unsettling. Long-standing assumptions about the reliability — and even the friendliness — of its southern neighbour are being called into question. Navigating this increasingly unpredictable foreign policy landscape requires Canada to rethink its diplomatic strategies, invest in stronger multilateral partnerships beyond the US sphere of influence, and assert a clearer voice in global forums.
In 2025, Project Ploughshares is ready to support Canada’s efforts to strengthen multilateral alliances, uphold international norms, and promote responsible security policies.
2. The fragility of the nuclear disarmament regime
The global nuclear disarmament framework, anchored by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), appears increasingly fragile in the aftermath of NPT review conferences in 2015 and 2022 (each of which failed to agree on a consensus outcome document) that revealed deepening divisions between members with nuclear weapons and those without. The latter are increasingly frustrated over the lack of meaningful progress toward disarmament. Meanwhile, States Parties with nuclear weapons persist in modernizing their nuclear arsenals and expanding nuclear capabilities, displaying no willingness to fulfill their legally binding disarmament commitments.
Meetings of NPT States Parties and of States Parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) later in 2025 will offer critical opportunities to reinvigorate global disarmament efforts. These meetings must address not only the technical aspects of disarmament and non-proliferation but also the growing mistrust that undermines each treaty’s credibility.
Additionally, the eightieth anniversary of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki later this year will serve as a poignant reminder of the catastrophic consequences of nuclear weapons. It provides a powerful platform from which to advocate for renewed disarmament commitments and the goal of nuclear abolition.
In 2025, Project Ploughshares is focused on fostering constructive Canadian engagement with both the NPT and the TPNW. We continue to highlight the growing nuclear risks associated with ongoing conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, where nuclear rhetoric and the presence of nuclear-armed states could lead to the use of nuclear weapons. And we consistently urge Canada to take a leadership role in promoting disarmament, supporting international legal frameworks, and holding nuclear-armed states accountable for their commitments under international law.
3. The erosion of humanitarian standards
International humanitarian law (IHL), designed to protect civilians during armed conflicts, is under serious attack. The recent conflict in Gaza illustrates the international community’s failure to robustly defend humanitarian principles. Instead, violations of IHL — such as attacks on civilian infrastructure and disproportionate use of force — have been met with muted responses at best. This erosion of legal and moral norms not only undermines the protection of civilians but threatens to normalize the use of excessive force in armed conflicts worldwide.
Underreported but catastrophic humanitarian crises in countries including Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are driven by regional power struggles and fueled by illicit arms flows. The lack of global attention and accountability allows these crises to persist, with civilians bearing the brunt of the violence and instability.
In 2025, Project Ploughshares continues to advocate for stronger protections for civilians in armed conflicts through key initiatives such as the political declaration to protect civilians from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas (EWIPA). By highlighting both the overt erosion of humanitarian protections in widely covered conflicts and the silent suffering in neglected crises, Project Ploughshares seeks to promote greater accountability and ensure that the protection of civilians remains a priority in Canadian and international security policies.
4. The rapid advancement of military technologies
The unprecedented speed of technological innovation, seen in the development of autonomous weapons driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and space-based military systems, presents one of the most dramatic challenges to international security and global stability. The integration of AI-assisted technologies into military operations is rapidly outpacing the international community’s ability to craft effective regulations.
There are real risks that AI-driven military systems, which are leading to diminished human oversight in life-and-death decision-making, will lead to unintended escalation of conflicts. The development of lethal autonomous weapon systems could fundamentally alter the nature of warfare, raising grave ethical and legal concerns.
At the same time, outer space — once regarded as a domain reserved for peaceful purposes — has emerged as the next frontier for military competition. Major powers are accelerating their development of space-based weapons, while the rhetoric of some international actors features a shift toward open acceptance of space weaponization. These developments risk turning space into a battleground, with potentially catastrophic consequences for global security and the stability of the space infrastructure so vital to civilian life.
In 2025, Project Ploughshares is intensifying efforts to strengthen Canada’s role in promoting global military AI governance. We advocate for robust international regulations that prevent the proliferation of fully autonomous weapons; we also promote ethical AI standards through active engagement with the tech sector. By fostering responsible development frameworks, we aim to mitigate the risks associated with AI-driven military technologies and ensure meaningful human oversight in decision-making processes.
At the same time, we are addressing the escalating threat of space weaponization by engaging with the United Nations Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) on space security. To prevent the weaponization of outer space, we look to the advancement of transparency measures, the fostering of international cooperation, and promotion of stronger legal frameworks. These efforts are essential to maintain global stability, ensure the peaceful use of space, and prevent an arms race in this increasingly contested domain.
5. The arms trade as a source of insecurity
A decade after its adoption, the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) faces significant challenges as major arms exporters continue to supply weapons to countries with well documented histories of human-rights violations, often prioritizing political and economic interests over international legal obligations. These states exploit loopholes in enforcement mechanisms, undermining the treaty’s effectiveness. Such disregard for its core principles threatens to erode the ATT’s credibility and weaken global efforts to regulate the arms trade responsibly.
Canada’s role as an arms exporter warrants scrutiny. Although a state party to the ATT, Canada has continued to export arms to states involved in conflicts in which there is a clear risk that international humanitarian and human rights law will be violated. For example, in 2024, Canada sold arms to both Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Arms exports to Israel persisted in 2024 despite extensive Israeli military operations in Gaza that claimed thousands of civilian lives and destroyed critical infrastructure. Arms transfers to Saudi Arabia also continued despite well documented risks of misuse.
In 2025, Project Ploughshares is intensifying its scrutiny of Canada’s arms exports, particularly to conflict zones and countries with established records of human-rights abuse. Urging Canada’s compliance with the ATT, particularly by implementing strict controls on arms transfers when the risk of misuse is clear, remains a top priority. By pushing for greater transparency and accountability in Canada’s arms trade policies, Project Ploughshares aims to ensure that economic interests never take precedence over humanitarian principles and international legal obligations.
6. Climate change and security risks
Climate change is increasingly recognized as a security threat multiplier, intensifying existing geopolitical tensions and fueling new conflicts over scarce resources, displacement, and environmental degradation. Already fragile states and regions are being subjected to the cascading effects of rising sea levels, more extreme weather events, and greater resource scarcity.
Consider the militarization of the Arctic. As ice caps have melted, new shipping routes have emerged, granting eager Arctic and non-Arctic states access to previously unreachable natural resources. To secure economic and strategic interests, these states are bolstering their military presence. And so the risk of conflict in this delicate ecosystem grows, threatening both the environment and regional security.
In 2025, Project Ploughshares is refining its focus on the intersections among climate change, militarization, and security. A key research topic is the role of the Canadian Armed Forces in addressing climate-related security risks, particularly their involvement in disaster response, resource protection, and Arctic defence operations. A key question: Are military strategies contributing to or mitigating climate-driven tensions?
We also want to better understand the impact of military activities on climate; armed forces are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions through large-scale operations, infrastructure development, and energy consumption. Understanding and mitigating the environmental footprint of military activities could be critical in ensuring that security measures do not exacerbate the very problems they seek to address.
By considering both the security implications of climate change and the environmental impacts of militarization, Project Ploughshares is positioning itself as an advocate for responsible defence policies that prioritize sustainability, conflict prevention, and international cooperation.
Why we do what we do
In the fractured world we now live in, Project Ploughshares strives to be a voice of reason, impartial analysis, and principled advocacy. Our mission is rooted in the belief that true security is not achieved through arms races or military dominance, but through diplomacy, disarmament, and cooperation.
We work to influence both Canadian and international policy by engaging with decisionmakers, civil society organizations, and global institutions to promote peace and reduce the risk of armed violence. At the heart of our work is the defence of international norms. Even as these norms face increasing strain, our commitment to strengthening them never wavers.
We also aim to raise public awareness. We understand that informed citizens are needed if governments are to create policies that reflect humanitarian values and uphold the principles of human rights. Our work ensures that Canada remains a force for good on the global stage.
Help Project Ploughshares continue this vital work
With global security challenges intensifying, the work of crafting solutions that result in sustainable peace and security has never been more necessary. Our ability to influence policy, provide independent analysis, and advocate for peace depends on the support of those who share our vision of a more just and secure world.
Please consider supporting Project Ploughshares. Your contribution — large or small — will directly sustain our efforts to engage in critical international forums; produce rigorous, evidence-based research; and amplify voices advocating for disarmament, responsible security policies, and the protection of civilians in armed conflict.
In 2025, the stakes could not be higher or the need for principled, collaborative action greater. The year is bringing formidable challenges, but we at Ploughshares are prepared to take them on. Join us.
