Dispatch from Brussels
In an age of geopolitical headwinds, Europe and Canada are facing similar dilemmas: How to sustain disarmament and diplomacy in a world shaped by fractious rivalry, technology, and mistrust. This is not yesterday’s Cold War: Power is diffuse, technology moves faster than treaties, and the lines between civilian and military domains are blurring. At this year’s EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium meetings, Dr. Jessica West and Dr. Branka Marijan joined policymakers, researchers, and diplomats to take stock. The mood was sober but urgent: cooperation feels fragile, yet the need for it has never been greater.
1. Rethinking disarmament in a turbulent world
Across panels, the question was how to keep disarmament alive amid deepening geopolitical divisions and innovations in weapons technology. With multilateralism under strain, participants emphasized working-level trust and cross-regional coalitions as tools of resilience. Creativity, not nostalgia, is needed to encourage new partnerships that rebuild the connective tissue of diplomacy, one conversation at a time.
2. Nuclear anxieties return
Nuclear risks are top of mind. The collapse of long-standing bilateral restraints, from the INF Treaty to the limits of New START, has left few guardrails in place. New delivery systems including hypersonic missiles, long-range precision weapons, and dual-capable platforms, are shortening decision times and complicating deterrence. Regional flashpoints such as South Asia remain tense, while the fear of nuclear weapons in orbit underscores how quickly restraint is eroding across domains. The shared concern was clear: Nuclear order is weakening faster than institutions can adapt.
3. The technological tinderbox
New missile technologies, dual-use space systems, and AI-driven decision-making are redrawing the boundaries of conflict. Without agreed rules or reliable communication channels, miscalculation could come easily and catastrophically. Confidence-building, data transparency, and crisis hotlines are once again at the centre of strategic stability.
4. The reinvention of diplomacy
From the Middle East to Eastern Europe, the limits of military logic are on display. As rivalries deepen, diplomacy must once again carry the burden of stability. The challenge is to craft regional architectures that deter aggression while leaving space for dialogue; a task easier to describe than to deliver. For both Europe and Canada, this means investing in diplomatic capacity as deliberately as in defence: rebuilding relationships, re-engaging institutions, and finding room for negotiation even when trust is thin.
5. New role of networked powers
If the old superpowers can no longer lead, networked powers must step in to stabilize the system, less through hard power than through institutional competence. Europe and Canada can operate as a collective centre of gravity: agenda entrepreneurs advancing workable rules, driving transparency, and restoring diplomatic credibility. In a fragmented order, this kind of networked leadership is the only leadership still available.
Brussels reminded us that even in turbulent times, diplomacy endures, not because it is easy, but because every alternative is worse.
Published in The Ploughshares Monitor Winter 2025
